{"id":587,"date":"2025-05-12T07:57:44","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/?p=587"},"modified":"2025-06-07T08:05:25","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T08:05:25","slug":"should-we-stay-or-should-we-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/?p=587","title":{"rendered":"Should we stay or should we go?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Markets catch their breath, but uncertainty lingers. In May, one question looms large: stay invested, or cash out?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve always had a soft spot for musical paradoxes. Here\u2019s a good one: a band named The Clash<\/em> \u2014 already on the brink of collapse in 1982 \u2014 writes a song about doubt and indecision. Should I Stay or Should I Go?<\/em> Who would have guessed such a track would become timeless? And yet, it\u2019s now a classic. Proof, perhaps, that moments of tension can sometimes give rise to something lasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If that song were to echo through trading floors today, it wouldn\u2019t feel out of place. After a rollercoaster April that began in panic and ended in a rebound stretching into May, investors too are torn: stay invested, or use the calm to pull out? Especially now that we\u2019re in May, a month infamous in financial circles for the old adage: Sell in May and go away<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this climate of widespread indecision, last month\u2019s outlook proved fairly accurate. We likened Trump\u2019s strategy to an exogenous shock \u2014 like a jarring dissonance in a score \u2014 requiring an adjustment period for investors. We also noted three key forces that could help markets regain some balance: political resistance, economic fundamentals, and in the background, the possibility of monetary or fiscal support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A rate cut in the U.S. would certainly offer markets a breath of fresh air. But for now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is holding firm, undeterred by presidential outbursts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some adjustment has taken place. The rebound at the end of April was enough to revive a touch of optimism, though markets remain below their February levels. It’s time to revisit those three forces in light of recent developments. And in the spirit of this month\u2019s soundtrack, ask the only question that really matters: Should we stay, or should we go?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start with political resistance.<\/strong> As expected, the White House\u2019s bold \u2014 some might say abrasive \u2014 approach has met limits. China hit back, several countries retaliated, Elon Musk packed his bags\u2026 but tensions are slowly easing, and dialogue is resuming. At the time of writing, the world\u2019s two biggest powers are in talks in Geneva, with early reports pointing to \u201cencouraging\u201d progress. Meanwhile, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have also resumed. These are all reasons to stay in the game. But let\u2019s not unpack our bags just yet \u2014 even if deals are struck, Trump\u2019s disruptive style (and the volatility it brings) won\u2019t vanish overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, economic data.<\/strong> The earnings season gave us a window into the health of the global economy. So far, the results have been largely reassuring \u2014 often beating expectations. But there\u2019s a catch: these figures reflect the previous quarter and haven\u2019t yet absorbed the impact of the new trade barriers. Also, the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show a slight contraction in U.S. GDP in Q1 2025. It\u2019s not alarming \u2014 unless there\u2019s a sudden policy U-turn \u2014 and we\u2019re seeing signs of resilience in Europe, especially in Germany, where several governments appear ready to support growth. All in all, the momentum is fragile, but not broken. That means: stay, but don\u2019t stray too far from the exit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly, the third lever: monetary and fiscal stimulus.<\/strong> A rate cut in the U.S. would clearly lift the markets. But Powell remains unmoved for now, despite pressure from the White House. On the fiscal front, several governments \u2014 notably China \u2014 are working on stimulus plans, though nothing major has yet been rolled out. Still, this isn\u2019t a reason to leave \u2014 if anything, it\u2019s potential firepower that could be deployed if things worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short:<\/strong> As long as the presidential agenda remains unchanged, volatility is likely. But at this stage, there\u2019s no justification for a hasty exit. As long as the foundations of global markets remain intact, staying invested still makes sense. And let\u2019s not forget: if you do pull out, where will you go? Abandoning a long-term strategy in response to short-term noise can end up costing far more than a few weeks of turbulence. Especially in an environment where Swiss interest rates are flirting once again with zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To borrow from The Clash<\/em> \u2014 but flip the line around: \u201cIf I stay there will be trouble\u2026 but if I go, there will be double.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets catch their breath, but uncertainty lingers. In May, one question looms large: stay invested, or cash out? I\u2019ve always had a soft spot for musical paradoxes. Here\u2019s a good one: a band named The Clash \u2014 already on the brink of collapse in 1982 \u2014 writes a song about doubt and indecision. Should I…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=587"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":589,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/587\/revisions\/589"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thecuriouspractitioner.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}