Musings on economics and finance
When the bond market shows up to the party, it’s worth paying attention — it sets the tone… and the cost of capital. Who hasn’t experienced the humiliation of being turned away at the door of a nightclub? It’s a rite of passage for many. But very few have managed to turn that frustration into…
Markets catch their breath, but uncertainty lingers. In May, one question looms large: stay invested, or cash out? I’ve always had a soft spot for musical paradoxes. Here’s a good one: a band named The Clash — already on the brink of collapse in 1982 — writes a song about doubt and indecision. Should I…
Between unpredictable sheriffs and tariff shootouts, markets are turning into a Western. The only question now: who’ll fire the next shot? In recent weeks, financial markets have felt like a scene straight out of a modern Wild West: unpredictable, volatile, and governed by no clear rules. Every time I glance at my Bloomberg screen, I…
When investing, it’s important to understand the odds you’re facing. And some statistics are hard to ignore. We analyzed over 20,000+ U.S. stocks listed between 1950 and 2022 (and subsequently delisted) to answer a critical question: What are the chances of beating the market? The answer: roughly 1 in 3. Not very encouraging odds, are…
Markets are falling. Investors are tense. The economy is shifting. Panic or perspective? Pressure doesn’t just shake—it shapes. It’s up to us to turn it into strength. What happens when two legends meet in the Swiss Alps? Not another Federer-De Niro tourism ad—but something far more iconic. In 1981, Freddie Mercury and David Bowie crossed…
Like it or not, forecasts are unavoidable. Whether we’re overweighting or underweighting an asset class – or even sticking to a benchmark – we are making an implicit forecast. Having a framework to evaluate how well we forecast and translate predictions into performance – through both calibration and implementation – has always been important to…
Investor infidelity often leads to the most exciting investment opportunities. And the start of this year is a perfect case in point. There’s something thrilling about a love affair where nothing is guaranteed. Diana Ross captured that tension perfectly in her 1980 disco classic “Upside Down”. I’ve picked this iconic track to set the tone…
Alright, let’s stir the pot a bit and talk about Swiss Real Estate ETFs. Over the past five years, their AUM have ballooned by nearly half a billion, thanks to the rise of robo-advisors. What are Swiss Real Estate ETFs and what do they hold? These ETFs aim to give you a slice of the…
As central bankers fall silent and political leaders raise their voices, investors find themselves caught in the middle. What stance should we take to start 2025 on solid ground? Writing a song—and composing the music—that centers on “The Sound of Silence” is a paradox in itself. But Simon & Garfunkel were never ones to shy…
Like Ray Charles, Donald Trump is a master of call-and-response. He sends the signal—and markets waste no time answering. And with each exchange, new opportunities start to take shape. Legend has it that “What’d I Say” was born on a whim. Out of songs at the end of a 1958 concert in Brownsville, Ray Charles…