FOLLOW THE WORDS AND THE CROWD
This question might seem unexpected, but I need to ask: Do you know how prices are determined?
Supply and demand? Sure…but what else?
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. The power dynamics between buyers and sellers offer only a glimpse into the complex world of price determination.
At any given time, four distinct economic agents play critical roles around any available asset:
- The Aspirants : These individuals are interested in the asset and have the means but haven’t secured ownership yet (=potential buyers).
- The Ready-to-Depart : They currently possess the asset but no longer wish to keep it, either because it no longer serves their needs or was acquired with the intention of resale (=potential sellers).
So far, nothing new under the sun. But there are two additional categories of agents that exert significant, if not more pronounced, influence on price as powerful background forces:
- The Keepers: These economic agents currently own the asset and have an interest in it. They influence the asset’s availability, either by limiting access or occasionally decreasing its quantity.
- The Onlookers: This group is vast, filled with those who haven’t noticed the asset, decided it’s not for them, or can’t afford it yet.
While monetary transactions primarily involve the Aspirants and the Ready-to-Depart, most social interactions occur between the Keepers and the Onlookers.
These groups constantly exchange opinions and insights, influencing perceptions of what the price should be.
Keepers serve as significant sources of information. Whether acting as advocates or critics, their direct and often privileged access to the asset positions them as “insiders,” capable of shaping others’ perceptions (imagine your best friend praising the merits of a newly acquired gadget to you).
The Onlookers represent the dormant mass of economic agents, targeted by marketers and sales representatives alike, seeking to sway and convert them into future purchasers. Typically, this segment outweighs the others in sheer volume.
And the means of exchange between Keepers and Onlookers are stories.
Consider this: before Nike sold millions of models, there had to be an initial buyer, then a handful who shared their experience before influencing others. The Tupperware brand also exemplifies this. It built its success on word-of-mouth strategies and the famous “Tupperware parties,” which brought together Keepers and Onlookers.
These four types of agents form a cycle, represented in a quadrant:
Onlookers become buyers, who then become Keepers, eventually turn into sellers, and may later return to indifference.
Understanding this cycle is crucial. For future buyers to emerge when you’re ready to sell, a dynamic interplay must exist within the quadrant. In short, the story needs to translate into movements of people and money. Flows that you can assess by tracking the movements within each quadrant section : How many aspirants appear daily? How many listings for your items are on platforms? What’s the buzz in the news? What do influencers say? What are the flows in this particular fund? How many shares are traded?
The key lies in pinpointing a few indicators to gauge people’s interest. By doing so, you can evaluate the appeal of your story and its potential to foster adoption. If you observe measurable flows of people and money showing a clear dynamic within the quadrant, that’s already a positive indicator for your investment.
But how do we ensure that the interest doesn’t wane over time? The answer, this time, lies not with the crowd surrounding the asset but within the asset itself.